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The situation is fluid, as all conference expansion discussions are, but this information is the most concrete I have collected tonight and I trust it. The only certainty is that Texas A&M will join the SEC. I want to reiterate that the above information is simply what is the preferred course of action by the respective conferences, not a report of any deals in place.
There appears to be some feeling among the commissioners that a core of four BCS conferences is the next step. The potential poaching of schools by both the SEC and ACC could spell the end of the Big 12 and Big East as we know it.
I will update the story as it develops if possible.
As for my post from earlier…
BY JOSH
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Remember that girl in high school who would smile, giggle, and talk to you just enough to make you think you had a chance? Those were the girls we like to call “teases.”
It’s hard to tell which is which in this situation, but Texas A&M and the SEC are teasing everyone – again – about a matrimony that could mark a radical shift in major college football conference alignment.
Texas Governor (and A&M alum) Rick Perry did nothing to dispel the rumor that the Aggies were considering a move to the most elite conference in college football.
“I’ll be real honest with you. I just read about it the same time as y’all did,” Perry said. “As far as I know, conversations are being had. That’s frankly all I know.”
If Texas A&M does indeed jump ship on the quickly deteriorating Big 12, it will set off a domino effect of conference realignment that has many possible results, many of which are, more or less, quite logical.
First things first: if/when the move Aggies decide that the SEC is their future home they will not and cannot go alone. The 12-team SEC will not expand to an odd number of schools, meaning they would either have to expand to 14 teams or contract a current member and remain with 12. The latter ain’t happening. Vanderbilt, the perennial doormat of the league athletically, carries the league in the classroom the way Andrew Luck will carry the Stanford football team this year. Kentucky’s weak track record in football is overlooked by one of the most dominant basketball programs ever.
If A&M is going, it’s bringing someone with them. But who? Here’s a few possible outcomes…
Scenario One – Texas A&M and Oklahoma join the SEC
Bob Stoops and Nick Saban may soon fight for not only a National Championship...but a division championship.
This is far and away the most likely situation. The reason the Aggies are jumping ship in the first place is because the Big 12 is on the brink of potential implosion. They are taking the proactive route in looking elsewhere before it happens. The Sooners offer the most attractive athletic program – specifically, football team – that would give the SEC an unthinkable stranglehold on college football.
The Sooners, along with the Aggies, would extend the league’s footprint into the Midwest, but they would not be so far away that the makeup of the league wouldn’t make sense geographically (like, say, TCU in the Big East).
Should this take place, say goodbye to the Big 12. Texas would almost certainly see no reason to stay in a lame-duck conference at that point, which would send them on the way to independence – which, by the way, is inevitable in almost every possible outcome over the next five years.
The Big 12 could not save itself by adding teams like Houston or Tulsa. The two most attractive options normally would be Boise State and TCU. Both teams are just joining new leagues, however, which basically eliminates the chances of either changing again. Either the Big 12 adds a handful of Conference USA or Mountain West programs and becomes a non-AQ league going forward, or it disbands altogether. Option No. 2 is highly likely under those circumstances.
Meanwhile, here’s what the SEC Divisional format would most likely become:
SEC East – Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky Vanderbilt
SEC West – Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
…Wow.
Scenario Two – Texas A&M and (insert ACC school here) join the SEC
The Hokies and Vols could form an exciting new rivalry.
The SEC could go a number of ways if they expand eastward with their second choice besides A&M. Florida State fits the profile of an SEC program athletically, with a strong football program, average men’s basketball, and very strong Olympic sports. Clemson is in the same mold, though not quite as strong across the board, but formidable nonetheless. Both would seemingly be natural fits in the SEC.
But there’s one caveat. Conference expansion is all about adding new markets to generate more television revenue. The SEC already has Florida and South Carolina, and wouldn’t be adding much of anything in the Seminoles or Tigers, in that respect. Enter Virginia Tech.
The Hokies would add the Washington, D.C. market, as well as a top-tier football program that would jump at the chance to compete in the SEC. From a financial standpoint, the most realistic argument that can be made for an ACC school to join the SEC is Virginia Tech. However, the Hokies have only been in the ACC since 2004, and have benefited tremendously from its membership. They’d be foolish not to listen if the SEC comes calling, but it might be hard to pry them away. They also don’t bring near the full-scale athletic prowess of Clemson or FSU; in other words, they would get rocked in most Olympic sports in the new league.
In this case, the Aggies would join the SEC West, and the ACC school of choice would slide into the East Division. Simple enough.
Scenario Three – Texas A&M is joined by three other schools in a 16-team SEC
Okay, Nick Saban can be Superman...who is Wonder Woman?
All of the aforementioned programs would be in play here. Oklahoma, again, is the most likely to get the first call, but should the SEC decide it wants to make a run at a 16-team “SuperConference,” it has the power to pull it off.
Florida State, Virginia Tech and Clemson would then be three teams fighting for two spots (I would include Georgia Tech, but there are some burned bridges there from quite a while ago; it may or may not be held against them, who knows).
This is where it could get ugly. The Seminoles and Tigers would be the favorites in this case because they could potentially have fellow state schools lobbying for their inclusion. The irony in this situation is that without the University of Virginia, Virginia Tech never joins the ACC. The Cavaliers had to pull serious strings to make sure the Hokies were included in the original conference expansion that included Miami in 2004.
My best guess that if the league were to go to 16 teams (I’m putting odds at 50-1 this happens), it would be Texas A&M and Oklahoma joining the West with FSU and Clemson being added to the East. In which case the league would look like this.
East: Florida State, Florida, Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
West: Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
…Again, wow.
Just for fun, let’s say the SEC went to 16 teams and decided to divide the league four ways, creating four pods of teams that would create a slightly more competitively balanced league.
North: Clemson, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Kentucky
Central: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss
West: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, LSU, Mississippi State
Highly unlikely, but pretty cool to think about.
So there you have it, the three most realistic options for the SEC to expand in order to include Texas A&M. Each of which would likely mean the demise of the Big 12 to varying degrees.
Give the Aggies credit, they’re trying their best to stay close to vest. Until then, we’ll keep waiting for an answer.
Hopefully we have better luck than we did in high school .
